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15 April 2014

Nielsen Shows Abbott Has No Way Back

The figures in the Nielsen Poll today suggest the Abbott government is in more trouble than it can get out of, like the Gillard government in its last five months.

Abbott is preferred as Prime Minister by 45 percent, Shorten by 44 percent, with 11 percent uncommitted. In Victoria Shorten leads Abbott by 49 to 41, in Queensland 43 to 41, and in SA/NT trails him by only 46 to 43.

44 percent of women want Shorten as PM, 41 want Abbott.
50 percent of 18-24 year olds want Shorten, 41 percent Abbott.
50 percent of 25-39 year olds want Shorten, 37 percent Abbott.
52 percent of all people are preferring Labor, 48 percent Coalition, a swing of 5.5 percent, the highest since 1975.

And this was in a week when all commentators were declaring the Labor Party in crisis, and Shorten in doubt, and brandishing a narrative in which Labor, smashed in WA, and approaching extinction, needed root-and-branch reform and another leader. These figures, which are detailed and plausible, show the 'bigotry' legislation rejected by 88 percent of Australians, and the 'knighthood' initiative by 67 percent.

And Joe's fresh attack on the old, saying those who paid tax for forty years, expecting they'd get a pension when they were sixty-five, now won't, has only begun to sink in. His mob will have lost 2 more percent by this time next week, and be unelectable thereafter, whatever they do.

Why is this the case? It is because their narrative is all over the place. Every Australian will have to 'share the pain', Joe says, except millionaires' pregnant wives. We cannot afford to prop up Holden (and with it a quarter of a million jobs) but we can afford an equal amount spent, if need be, on a search of the sea bottom for scrap metal and corpses. We can afford to pay Arthur Sinodinos 250,000 dollars for fifty hours work, but not give the kids of dead soldiers 12,000 a year to buy textbooks, shoes, tennis racquets and go on school outings.

They believe the taxpayers should give billions to prop up drought-parched Queensland farmers but not even twenty million to save canning factory workers and fruit-growers in the Goulburn Valley.

Their narrative is all over the place. Joe believes we should sell our best farms to a Chinese Communist government and Barnaby is horrified by this. And just when the ABC is making world-beating drama, Joe will take away the money for it, and close down country stations, which to most National voters are sacred sites.

And, as global warming becomes more and more real, and more and more urgent, Joe is cutting by a quarter the money to the CSIRO and driving climate scientists out of the country.

Hence the Nielsen figures, and the 10 percent bye election swing to Labor in the Northern Territory, the 18 percent byelection swing in Queensland, the 8 percent swing against the Coalitiin in the Senate in WA.

Soon there will be worse news. The country towns will be outraged by the Abbott 'sellout' to Japan, Korea and China, one that shuts down even more small businesses. And Morrison will be shown to harbouring two murderers and torturing children, which is illegal.

It will happen very quickly, as it did in Queensland, where Newman would now lose fifty seats, including his own.
And we will see what we shall see.

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